Dallas and San Francisco have both started particularly slow this season, but the 49ers defense should be the difference when they face off on Sunday night. Read more in our NFL picks below.
Oct 22, 2024 • 11:12 ET
• 4 min read
A classic NFC grudge match takes the primetime stage when the Dallas Cowboys visit the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football.
Injury news on both teams has this spread bouncing all over the place in the first 48 hours of action, but my Cowboys vs. 49ers predictions are leaning on Brock Purdy & Co. I size up the NFL odds for Sunday Night Football and give my early NFL picks below.
Cowboys vs 49ers predictions
Early spread lean
49ers -4.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
This spread opened as high as Niners -6 on Sunday night, but with the Brandon Aiyuk injury and questions around the health of the San Francisco 49ers’ other top options — Jauan Jennings, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle — this spread has dropped as low as -4.5 as of Tuesday morning.
The Dallas Cowboys’ injury report is hoping to have a more positive spin in Week 8. Dallas has been down some top defenders but could have pass rusher Micah Parsons, DL Jordan Phillips, LB Eric Kendricks, as well as CBs DaRon Bland and Caelen Carson all in action Sunday night.
With the spread sitting between two key numbers (-4 and -6), movement between -4.5 and -5.5 isn’t as notable as you think. And despite the offensive injuries, San Francisco’s defense is the real X-factor against the Cowboys.
The 49ers are among the Top-15 stop units in most advanced metrics, including sitting seventh in defensive DVOA at FTN. San Francisco is coming off a solid effort against the Chiefs, in which the 28 points allowed is more of a reflection of the turnovers from the offense and not the work of the defense.
San Fran’s pass defense limited Patrick Mahomes to 157 yards on 16-for-27 passing along with two interceptions, and enters this matchup with the Cowboys rated 10th in EPA allowed per dropback.
Dallas’ offense is very one-dimensional. The passing combo of Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb is about it, especially with WR2 Brandin Cooks out due to infection. America’s Team has no running game and a lack of talent all around, trickling out to a 26th offensive DVOA and an EPA per play that sits 24th in the NFL.
Prescott’s predictability has boiled over to four interceptions the past two games and a soft offensive line has allowed six sacks in those recent outings, ranking 19th in pass block win rate at ESPN. The Cowboys are facing a San Francisco defense earning the ninth-highest pass rush win rate and snatching 13 takeaways on the season — eight coming via INT.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 47.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
We’ve sung the praises on San Francisco’s defense, which will be the backbone of this Week 8 win and cover for the 49ers. The Niners hobbled offense will also help keep the Cowboys at bay with a ground-centric, clock-chewing attack.
With Aiyuk out and Deebo dealing with pneumonia, the 49ers playbook gets short. Brock Purdy has been among the more aggressive QBs this season in terms of pushing the ball downfield, boasting the second-most intended air yards. Week 8 will see those deeper looks disappear.
Instead, I expect Kyle Shanahan to keep it simple and exploit one of the worst rushing defenses in the land. Dallas is dead last in EPA allowed per handoff and 30th in both run-stop win rate and opponent success rate allowed per carry coming into Week 8.
The 49ers are still without star Christian McCaffrey, but it doesn’t seem to matter who’s in the backfield in this system, with the current RB combo of Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo picking up gains.
San Francisco is already the top offense in time of possession (32:46), with that methodical pace and pre-snap motion taking the play clock down on every snap. Given the lack of intermediate and deep threats, that ball-hoggin offense will run slow and short — a recipe for Unders.
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Cowboys vs 49ers live odds
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