The San Francisco 49ers have let their 2024 season get away from them and now last year’s NFC champions have their backs against the wall when it comes to making the playoffs. They’re running out of games to figure things out and go on a win streak, which makes their Week 12 showdown against the Green Bay Packers a big one.
A win for the Packers would also go a long way in helping secure their playoff berth and keep them alive in the race for the NFC North. A loss would likely put them too far behind the Lions to win the division.
Let’s dive into the latest odds for the game and then I’ll predict the final score.
Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook
Spread
Moneyline
Total
The Packers opened as 1-point favorites on Sunday. It quickly ballooned to Packers -2.5 and has remained at that number throughout the week. The total has increased half a point from 47 to 47.5.
I broke down in this week’s edition of the “Road to 272 Bets” why I’m backing the 49ers as my upset pick of the week:
I may go down with the 49ers ship, but I still believe in this team. No other team has allowed more points in the final two minutes of their games than the 49ers, and they continue to pay the price for it. They’re losing games despite largely outplaying their opponents. For example, they still rank second in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +1.3, behind only the Ravens (+1.5).
I have some concerns about the Packers. They’re winning games, but Jordan Love has regressed from his 2023 success. He currently ranks 15th in the NFL in EPA+CPOE composite, behind the likes of Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, and Kirk Cousins. He’s also 17th in success rate, showing he’s just been an average quarterback in 2024, which may keep them from being able to put a team like the 49ers.
I’ll back the 49ers to win this game outright as slight underdogs. I think the market has penalized the 49ers too much for being on the wrong end of variance.
When it comes to the total, I’m going to take the OVER. The 49ers offense is gearing toward having a breakout game and while Love hasn’t had a fantastic season, he’s still going to put points on the board and may also cause a turnover that’ll hand the 49ers points.
Final score prediction: 49ers 31, Packers 28
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
You can check out all of Iain’s bets here!
Copyright for syndicated content belongs to the linked Source link
