The San Francisco 49ers are reeling. They’ve lost two straight games to fall to 5-6 and under .500 for the fourth time this season. They continue to battle the injury bug, with quarterback Brock Purdy missing last week’s loss to the Green Bay Packers. And they’re six-point underdogs for Sunday night’s game in Buffalo — the first time they’ve been underdogs in consecutive weeks since 2020.
Oh, and as if that wasn’t enough to overcome, they might have to deal with snow too.
The temperature in Buffalo is expected to be about 31 degrees with a real feel of 15 degrees at the 8:20 kickoff time, according to AccuWeather. And the forecast also calls for potential flurries, with some snow already falling the night before.
Still snowing in Orchard Park. 🥶#GoBills | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/kGflmPtq3N
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) December 1, 2024
That undoubtedly benefits the home team used to playing in these elements with a quarterback built like a bull over the banged-up team from San Francisco with a quarterback returning from a shoulder injury.
Will that be enough to stop the Niners from covering one of the biggest spreads of the day? That’s the big question.
Betting splits
Spread: 80% of bets on Bills / 85% of handle on Bills
Moneyline: 61% of bets on Bills / 62% of handle on Bills
Total: 82% of bets on under / 53% of handle on under
More splits: NFL Week 13 public betting
Prince’s Pick
Patrick McDermott/Getty Images
49ers +6
I’m already on the record for taking Buffalo -7, but that was before we knew Purdy would be playing. Now that Adam Schefter has reported Purdy is expected to start, I expect a much closer game.
The Bills should still win, but the 49ers have just one loss by more than six points in games started by Purdy this year. He gives them a chance to sustain drives, which keeps Josh Allen on the sideline just a little longer. Not to mention, the best offense for both teams will likely come on the ground, which should further limit possessions and make for a tighter game.
Prince’s Prop
Andy Lyons/Getty Images
James Cook Over 62.5 rushing yards
Cook has gone over this line in alternating games since Week 5, but I’m not taking his over simply because he’s due. The 49ers have become a decent matchup for running backs, allowing over 100 yards rushing in four of their last seven games after doing so just once in their first four. And if Buffalo gets up the way the spread suggests, they’ll only become more likely to hand the ball off to Cook.
Anytime TD scorer
Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images
Josh Allen (+100)
Allen has been more of a runner the last couple of weeks for whatever reason, combining for 20 carries and 105 yards with a score in each game. Why not bet on him to extend that streak in a game he’s built for, with cold weather and potential precipitation.
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