The No. 23 Saint Mary’s Gaels (20-3, 10-0 WCC) visit the San Francisco Dons (18-6, 8-3) Thursday at The Sobrato Center in San Francisco. Tip-off is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college basketball odds around the Saint Mary’s vs. San Francisco odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
The Gaels have won 11 consecutive meetings since Feb. 2, 2019. The last victory for the Dons came Jan. 3, 2019, with San Francisco covering as a 3-point home favorite. Saint Mary’s is also 9-2 against the spread (ATS) in the 11-game win streak, while the Over has hit in 6 of the past 8 meetings.
The Gaels won the first meeting in Moraga 71-51 on Jan. 23, covering as a 10.5-point favorite as the Under (134) connected. San Francisco hit just 26.9% (14-of-52) from the field, and 22.2% (6-of-27) from behind the 3-point line. Saint Mary’s was an efficient 61.5% (32-of-52) from the field, while posting a plus-12 rebounding margin.
SMC is the only unbeaten team in WCC play, and it sits 2 1/2 games ahead of San Francisco. The Dons are 14-0 straight up (SU) at home, while the Gaels are 6-0 on the road, so something’s gotta give.
San Francisco has won 2 in a row, and 4 of the past 5 outings, while going 3-2 ATS in the span. The Under and Over have alternated in each of the past 5 contests.
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Saint Mary’s at San Francisco odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:18 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Saint Mary’s -275 (bet $275 to win $100) | San Francisco +220 (bet $100 to win $220)
Against the spread (ATS): Saint Mary’s -5.5 (-118) | San Francisco +5.5 (-102)
Over/Under (O/U): 131.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Saint Mary’s at San Francisco picks and predictions
Prediction
Saint Mary’s 74, San Francisco 66
Moneyline
Saint Mary’s (-275) will cost you nearly 3 times your potential return, and that’s too much risk for not enough reward.
The Gaels are unbeaten on the road this season, and they enter on a 10-game win streak. While San Francisco (+220) has posted a 14-0 SU record at home, it lost the first meeting by 20 points, and it hasn’t faced a ranked team at The Sobrato Center yet. Look for the Dons to finally meet their match.
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Against the spread
PLAY SAINT MARY’S -5.5 (-118) to get the job done by at least 3 buckets. Again, it won the first meeting 71-51 in the East Bay 2 weeks ago.
The Gaels have won 11 in a row in this series, too, while going 9-2 ATS in the series since 2019.
San Francisco +5.5 (-102) enters this game just 3-7 ATS in the past 10 games since Dec. 30, and it is just 3-4 ATS in the past 7 outings at home, too.
Over/Under
OVER 131.5 (-115) is a solid play in this WCC rematch.
The total has a slight edge for San Francisco (6-4) in the past 10 games since Dec. 30, although the Under easily cashed in the first meeting with Saint Mary’s.
For the Gaels, the total has gone low in 4 of the past 5 games, scoring 74 or fewer points, while allowing 60 or less in 9 of the previous 10 outings.
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