As we are fully into the dog days of summer, we are starting to get a better understanding of what the playoff picture could look like. We have seen the Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks fumble away preseason expectations, while teams like the Toronto Blue Jays and San Francisco Giants have exceeded expectations. The trade market will begin to shape over the next few weeks as teams look to make their final additions before a full push to the playoffs. With that, there is one series this weekend that has playoff and divisional implications. The Giants will be traveling to Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers for a three-game weekend set. The Dodgers hold a one game lead over the Giants in the NL West standings, making this series an incredibly important bout.
Doc’s Sports offers MLB expert picks for every game on our baseball predictions page.
Where They Stand
The Dodgers are 41-28 so far this season and they hold a game lead over the Giants and a two-game lead over the San Diego Padres in the NL West standings. They are 23-11 at home this season, which is the second-best home record in the NL. The Dodgers carry a +68-run differential on the season which is the third best in the NL and fifth best in the MLB. Shohei Ohtani continues to make his presence felt at the plate as he has a 3.2 WAR through 67 games. He leads the NL with 23 homeruns while also leading the team in stolen bases, five triples, and 68 runs. Ohtani is just one of three players with an OPS over 1.000. Andy Pages and Teoscar Hernandez are the only other Dodgers players to have double-digit homeruns. Despite the low homerun totals of some of their stars, the production is spread out amongst the roster as there are eight different Dodgers players who have recorded more than 30 RBIs. The pitching staff is getting beat up with injuries once again this season, but the one pitcher that has truly emerged for the Dodgers is Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He has a team best 2.1 WAR while posting a 2.20 ERA through 73.2 innings of work. Ben Casparius and Jack Dreyer have emerged as solid arms out of the bullpen as they have combined for 79.2 innings this season and have an average ERA of 2.82 and a 1.3 WAR.
As for the Giants, they are right on the Dodgers heels with a 40-29 record and trail in the division standings by just one game. The Giants have struggled on the road this season as they are just 18-18 through their first 36 road games. Their +48-run differential is the fourth best mark in the NL. The Giants are 7-3 over their last 10 games and have won their last four series. Matt Chapman leads the team in WAR with a 2.9 mark while Jung Hoo Lee trails with a 2.1 WAR. Chapman leads the team with 12 homeruns while Wilmer Flores and Heliot Ramos are right behind him with 11. One missing bat is Willy Adames. Despite the Giants exceeding expectations this season, Adames has not contributed much as he is hitting just .204 with a .607 OPS this season. The pitching has been elite for the Giants this season and has been a big reason for their success. Logan Webb continues to be one of the most consistent pitchers in the league as he has a 2.58 ERA through 87.1 innings. Despite his dominance, he is not the leader in WAR as Robbie Ray leads the pitching staff with a 2.0 WAR as he has a 2.55 ERA through 81.1 innings of work and an 8-1 record.
Team Betting Notes:
San Francisco Giants:
The San Francisco Giants are one of the worst teams ATS, going just 32-37 this season.
The game total performance has been hard to gauge for the Giants as they have seen the over hit in 18 of their 36 road games this season with 16 hitting the under and two pushing the total.
The Giants have a 3.49 ERA on the road this season which is the third best mark in the MLB.
Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Los Angeles Dodgers are also one of the worst teams ATS as they have covered in just 31 of their 68 games this season.
The over has hit in 22 of the Dodgers 34 home games this season which is the best mark in the league.
The Dodgers have scored a league best 211 runs at home this season and they are the only team in the league to have scored more than 200 runs at home this season.
Player Highlights:
San Francisco Giants:
Flores power potential has wilted a bit as he has just one homerun in his last 23 games.
Adames is hitting just .182 in the month of June, and he has just two homeruns since May 14th.
Ramos is hitting .310 in the month of June, though he is nearly a pacing a strikeout every four at bats ratio.
Los Angeles Dodgers:
Ohtani is averaging 2.51 total bases per game this season.
Mookie Betts is hitting .351 in the month of June and has only struck out three times in 37 at-bats.
Freddie Freeman is hitting just .238 in the month of June and has not hit a homerun since May 11th.
Game 1 Preview – Logan Webb (5-5, 2.58 ERA) vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (6-4, 2.20 ERA)
Game 1 Analysis: This will be the best pitching matchups of not only this series but of the weekend. Two aces going head-to-head to open up an incredibly important mid-season series is prime television. Webb has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the game over the last few seasons, but he has been consistently bad against Dodgers hitters. Betts and Kike Hernandez are both hitting over .400 against Webb over a combined 43 at-bats while Freeman, Muncy, and Ohtani are a combined 27/75 against Webb. As for the Giants, with Yamamoto being newer to the league the lineup does not have a lot of looks at the young Japanese star. The Giants have struggled against right-handed pitching this season as they rank just 24th in the league in OPS and 22nd in homeruns. Given this, and the Dodgers’ success at home, give me the Dodgers to come up with a statement win to open the weekend set.
My Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers to Win -185, Under 7.5 -115
Game 2 – Landen Roupp (4-4, 3.29 ERA) vs. Clayton Kershaw (1-0, 4.35 ERA)
Game 3 – Kyle Harrison (1-1, 4.56 ERA) vs. Dustin May (3-4, 4.46 ERA)
Series Picks:
Given the remaining starters for both teams during the rest of the series, expect there to be a lot of runs scored. The Dodgers have a slight advantage pitching wise during the remainder of the series as they will miss Ray and instead get Landen Roupp and Kyle Harrison. Clayton Kershaw will look to improve and get back to his dominant form while he and Dustin May should get plenty of run support from their lineup that loves to score runs at home. The Dodgers may very well sweep the weekend series and get some positive momentum and increase their division lead. If you aren’t as confident in the sweep, expect Games 2 and 3 to have a lot of runs scored and for the total to hit the over.
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