The San Francisco 49ers will try to avoid their first 1-3 start to a season in six years when they host the New England Patriots on Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET.
New England has lost two consecutive games after winning its season opener. Historically, these are two of the most successful franchises in league history, having combined for 11 Super Bowl wins.
But the 49ers are certainly not looking like a defending NFC champion should, and the Patriots have lost 15 of their last 20 games overall.
It sets up that the Pats are the biggest underdog of the season, according to the NFL Week 4 odds.
Let’s take a look at our expert Patriots vs. 49ers prediction and best bet to make for Sunday afternoon.
Patriots vs. 49ers prediction and best bet to make today
Under 40.5 points (-108 at DraftKings)49ers -10.5 (-110 at BetMGM)JaJuan Jennings anytime TD (+160 at DraftKings)Jordan Mason Over 84.5 rushing yards (-120 at BetMGM)
Even without McCaffrey, Samuel and Hargrave, I cannot see the Niners falling victim to the Patriots at home like Cincinnati did.
I will take them to cover the 10.5 spread at -110. Kyle Shanahan will have his team ready to make sure they don’t endure through another appalling upset.
I will not be touching either team on the moneyline, as there is no incentive to do so with the 49ers, and I am not using my funds or bonus bets on New England.
The Under of 40.5 at -110 is my favorite wager for this matchup, as San Francisco might score 24-plus points while holding the Patriots to 13 or even less. New England has an implied point total of 15.3 points.
For player props, consider Jennings as an Anytime TD scorer at +185. It is obvious that Purdy will look to him in key and potential scoring situations.
Mason is very likely to go over 84.5 rushing yards (-120 at BetMGM), considering he has easily surpassed that number in two of three games so far.
Consider the alternate rushing yards wager of 95+ at +140. The Patriots defense may spend a lot of time on the field this week.
Patriots vs.49ers NFL Week 4 odds
The Niners are favored to win by 10.5 points on Fanatics Sportsbook, in what appears to be the right matchup to get back on track.
San Francisco was a heavy preseason NFC favorite, but key injuries have seemingly eroded their usual dominant edge over most opponents.
San Francisco should still have enough firepower to merit the hefty spread.
While the defense has not been as stout as expected, the Patriots field one of the most impotent offenses in the league, which is why the oddsmakers crafted such a hefty spread for this game.
As a favorite so far this year, San Francisco is 1-2 ATS. New England has been an underdog in all three of its games and has a 1-1-1 record ATS.
The moneylines put the 49ers at -575 and the Patriots at +425. New England upset Cincinnati on the road in Week 1.
If you somehow believe the Patriots can pull off an even more unlikely road win, then the payoff will be a sweet one if they can shock the prognosticators and most everyone else.
The Over/Under of 40.5 tempts you to bet the Under. San Francisco could score 20-plus points and the two teams may still not cover because of the New England offense.
The Patriots are averaging 13 points per game, which is second lowest in the NFL. They have failed to hit the 28-point mark combined with opponents in two of three games so far this season.
Patriots vs. 49ers moneyline betting analysis
Why the 49ers could win as the favorite
San Francisco hasn’t looked like itself since a season-opening thrashing of the Jets, but the Patriots don’t pose much of a threat at all.
Superstar running back Christian McCaffrey (Achilles) is on Injured Reserve, and wide receiver Deebo Samuel is listed as doubtful with a knee injury. Nose tackle Javon Hargrave is out with a triceps injury.
Returning home will be a reprieve for the Niners after they lost to the surprisingly undefeated Minnesota Vikings and then were toppled in an eyebrow-raising three-point defeat at the hands of the injury-depleted Los Angeles Rams last week.
George Kittle, who was out in Week 3 with a hamstring injury, might be able to return for Sunday’s game.
San Francisco can count on Jauan Jennings and Jordan Mason to continue doing their best to fill offensive voids.
In Jennings’ case, he attempted to carry the offense nearly by himself last week. His career day featured 11 receptions, 175 receiving yards, and three TD catches.
He joined the legendary Jerry Rice as the only players in franchise history with 10-plus receptions, 150-plus yards and three TDs in a single game.
Mason ranks second in the NFL with 324 rushing yards. He is one of just three NFL RBs with 75-plus rushing yards in each of the first three weeks.
Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk has five-plus catches and 100-plus receiving yards in four of his past six home games.
Brock Purdy has completed 72.6 percent of his passes for four TDs with one interception.
Defensively, the 49ers are allowing 23.0 points per game, but should stay below that average against New England. San Francisco has won two of the last three meetings with the Patriots.
Why the Patriots could win as the underdog
We have to get very creative for a case to back New England on the moneyline.
The only factors to consider from that perspective is that no one expected the Patriots to beat the Bengals on the road to open the season, and this year’s 49ers seem to be more vulnerable to being knocked off right now.
To help control the clock as much as possible, running back Rhamondre Stevenson must play a significant role on offense.
He is aiming for his fourth consecutive game overall with 90-plus rushing yards and a TD vs. an NFC opponent.
Stevenson has reached those same statistical thresholds in two of the first three games this season.
Jacoby Brissett has passed for just 368 yards and one TD, but he is remaining the starter over rookie Drake Maye or another week.
To have a shot of staying in this game, the Patriots will have to rely on their defense, which is allowing 19.0 points per game.
In the Week 1 win at Cincinnati, New England forced two key fumbles and did not lose any turnovers.
Playing mistake-free football again this week will give them some hope of sticking close to the home team on the scoreboard.
In Week 3, cornerback Jonathan Jones finished with seven tackles, a forced fumble, and a pass defensed.
Strong safety Kyle Dugger has forced a fumble in two of his past three road games.
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