The Giants’ system has a lot of they-might-be-relievers and a lot of toolsy position players who swing and miss too often to project as regulars, with some star potential beyond the top few names and enough pitching depth that they shouldn’t be going after back-end starters or right-handed relievers in free agency or trades. They do need one of these recent first-rounders to pan out, though, as the current front office has not had much success with those picks so far, while the Giants as an organization haven’t had a real hit among first-round picks since Zack Wheeler in 2009.
GO DEEPER
Top 100 MLB prospects 2024: Keith Law’s rankings, with Jackson Holliday at No. 1
Giants 2024 top 20 prospects
(Note: Seasonal ages as of July 1, 2024. Scouting grades are on the traditional 20-80 or 2-8 scouting scale.)
1. Kyle Harrison (2024 top 100 ranking: 11)
Bats: R | Throws: L | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 200 | Seasonal age in 2024: 22
The top left-handed pitching prospect in baseball, Harrison had a rough go in his Triple-A debut last year, walking 16.3 percent of hitters — at least some of which was likely attributable to the automated ball-strike system (ABS) used in some Triple-A games — and missing a month with a hamstring injury, but he showed much better in his seven major-league starts, including throwing a lot more strikes than expected. Harrison comes from a low three-quarters arm slot that makes him very tough on left-handed hitters, working 92-97 mph with hard running life, along with a hard slurve that mostly breaks downward and a changeup that’s potentially plus and has good separation from the fastball. It’s not an easy delivery to repeat, so his command will probably always be a question, but the improved control in the majors was a great sign, and his sudden trouble with the longball (eight homers allowed in 34 2/3 major-league innings, four of them in a single start) seems fluky with three coming from left-handed batters.
Everyone wants to make pitchers who throw like Harrison into Chris Sale, but I think that’s unfair to both guys; the White Sox gave Sale a new grip that turned his slider into a 70, while Harrison may end up relying much more on the fastball/changeup and saving his breaker for left-on-left crime. Regardless of how he puts it together, he looks like a No. 2 starter and has that ace upside if the command takes a leap or he can tighten up the slurve.
2. Marco Luciano, SS (2024 top 100 ranking: 84)
Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 180 | Seasonal age in 2024: 22
Luciano started the year on the IL while recovering from a stress fracture in his lower back, finally got rolling after some time in Double A, then ended up in the big leagues and was mostly overmatched. He did hit the ball very hard in the majors, as he’s done everywhere when healthy, and he’s able to keep up with fastballs, but offspeed stuff was an issue even in Double A, and killed him at the next two stops — he went from a 30 percent strikeout rate in Double A to 35 percent in Triple A to 37 percent in the big leagues, which is all an argument that he should have stayed at Double A until he showed better non-fastball recognition. He’s also not a shortstop, and I think moving him to left field might allow him to focus more on developing the bat while also perhaps keeping him healthy. He’s still quite young, just 22 all season with barely 300 professional games on his resume, and he’s got a strong swing that’s geared for 25-30 homers. I never bought him as a shortstop, or really even a second baseman, but I thought the bat would be more advanced than this. He can still be an above-average regular if the Giants give him the time to develop his pitch recognition.
3. Bryce Eldridge, 1B/OF (2024 top 100 ranking: 85)
Bats: L | Throws: R | Height: 6-7 | Weight: 225 | Seasonal age in 2024: 19
Eldridge was a two-way prospect in high school who was 91-95 mph off the mound but without an average second pitch, so his future always seemed to be in the batter’s box. He’s 6-7 and can show you the huge power that you associate with those taller guys, but unlike most hitters his size, he has a very short swing and there’s reason to hope he’ll be an outlier among his peers when it comes to contact rate. His approach is geared toward putting the ball in play rather than a dead-pull approach to show off his power, so he goes the other way comfortably and hits the ball very hard when he does so. He was bothered by an ankle injury for the latter half of the spring and wasn’t running that well even over the summer when the Giants moved him to right field from his high school position of first base, although I’d reserve judgment on his outfield defense until this season when we see him at full go. There’s definitely risk here, as the history of hitters 6-7 and up is not great because their size typically means they swing and miss too often; the exceptions have done it with huge power, like Aaron Judge and the late Frank Howard. Eldridge’s ceiling is one where the power comes, but he also maintains a higher contact rate than other lowercase-g giants because of the shape of his swing.
4. Carson Whisenhunt, LHP (Just missed)
Bats: L | Throws: L | Height: 6-3 | Weight: 210 | Seasonal age in 2024: 23
Whisenhunt was the Giants’ second-round pick in 2022 out of East Carolina, although he didn’t pitch that spring due to a suspension after he tested positive for a PED. He’s got an out pitch in his changeup, with tremendous deception and some late fade, so the pitch looks just like his 92-95 mph fastball out of his hand, and with those two pitches, he could be a starter if he tightens up his control. Whisenhunt would be better with a third pitch, but his loopy curveball isn’t it despite a high spin rate, as hitters pick it up enough to lay off it and wait for the heater. He might be better off with a slider or cutter, something that isn’t so obvious to hitters right out of the hand, although ultimately his outcome is going to depend on his ability to throw more strikes overall and to spot the fastball better.
Reggie Crawford made his pro pitching debut in 2023 after recovering from Tommy John surgery. (Godofredo A. Vásquez / Associated Press)
5. Reggie Crawford, LHP
Bats: L | Throws: L | Height: 6-4 | Weight: 235 | Seasonal age in 2024: 23
Crawford’s days as a two-way player appear to be over after the 2022 first-rounder went to the Arizona Fall League as a hitter only and fell on his face, with 30 strikeouts in 71 PA. Perhaps the Giants sent him there hoping he’d fare poorly enough to commit to a career as a pitcher. He’s an outstanding athlete who on the mound has been up to 99 mph with tailing life, a hard slider with sweeping action, and a decent changeup. He threw 19 innings last year, his first time back on the mound after 2021 Tommy John surgery, and threw more strikes than I expected. The delivery works and he already looks physically like a mid-rotation starter. He might be several years away given how little he’s pitched, but there is high-end starter upside here.
6. Walker Martin, IF
Bats: L | Throws: R | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 188 | Seasonal age in 2024: 20
Martin was the Giants’ second-round pick last year out of a Colorado high school but did not play after signing due to a back injury. He’s a shortstop by trade but definitely needs another position, possibly even heading to the outfield, so the bat really has to carry him. He’s got a very pretty left-handed swing and hammers fastballs, with frequent hard contact against them. He had trouble picking up spin as an amateur — unsurprising when you grow up at 4,800 feet above sea level. He was named for Larry Walker; let’s hope that nominative determinism is a real thing.
7. Mason Black, RHP
Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-3 | Weight: 230 | Seasonal age in 2024: 24
Black reached Triple A last year, struggling a little with the ABS at that level, working with a 93-95 mph sinker, a sweepy slider in the mid-80s, and a much-improved changeup (which Statcast often tags incorrectly as a sweeper or cutter). He pitches mostly north-south with power to everything, lacking a real east-west weapon, and has gotten lefties out at least as well as righties for two years now. He’s much worse from the stretch, allowing 13 of his 16 homers last year with runners on, which, according to my math, is a bad time to allow home runs. He might be an innings guy in the fourth or fifth spot in a rotation, or a bulk reliever if he can’t keep the ball in the park a bit more often, but either way he has major-league value right now.
8. Rayner Arias, OF
Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 185 | Seasonal age in 2024: 18
Arias broke his wrist diving to catch a ball, ending his first pro season after just 16 games in the Dominican Summer League. He was hitting .414/.540/.793 at the time of the injury, and while it’s a tiny sample, he probably would have hit his way to the Arizona Complex League and been on his way to Low A this spring. That could still happen, as the 18-year-old outfielder shows the potential for a plus hit tool with plus power, with star upside in an outfield corner. He signed with the Giants for a $2,697,500 bonus in January 2023, showing strong instincts on both sides of the ball and the plus arm for right field. His swing gets caught in a grooved, uphill path that he doesn’t seem to easily adjust out of, something to watch as he faces better pitching this year. You can dream on a high average, 25+ power bat here if the swing doesn’t get in his way.
9. Grant McCray, OF
Bats: L | Throws: R | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 190 | Seasonal age in 2024: 23
McCray had a brutal start to 2023, hitting .149 in April with a 35 percent strikeout rate, and while he was better the rest of the way, it was a clear step back from his big 2022 season, especially in terms of contact. He’s still got huge upside on both sides of the ball, as he’s an excellent athlete who can play center field and has 25-homer potential if he hits enough for it. The Giants took a calculated risk by choosing to leave him unprotected in the Rule 5 draft, but no one selected him so he’s still in the organization.
10. Hayden Birdsong, RHP
Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-4 | Weight: 215 | Seasonal age in 2024: 22
The Giants’ 2022 sixth-round pick, Birdsong didn’t belong in Low A to start the year but quickly pitched his way out of there and ended up in Double A. He’s gained several miles an hour on his fastball since college, working in the low 90s at Eastern Illinois, mostly in relief, to 92-96 mph now, touching 98, with good carry to miss bats in the upper half of the zone. He does have four pitches, with the slider plus, and the changeup by far his least-used weapon, although almost everything he throws is north-south — the slider breaks almost straight down, as does the curveball, and the changeup has good tumble with very little fade or tail to his arm side. That’s the only thing that seems like it might prevent him from being a starter; he might need a cutter or, dare I say it, a ‘sweeper,’ anything to move east-west to make life harder for hitters.
11. Trevor McDonald, RHP
Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 200 | Seasonal age in 2024: 23
McDonald was electric when he pitched in 2023, getting up to 96-97 mph with power sink, a hard slider, and the best command he’s ever shown. He threw just 47 1/3 innings in total, including rehab stints, around a hamstring injury and a nagging quad injury. He made his first start in May and then nothing until his rehab assignment began two months later. He throws strikes, misses bats, and gets groundballs. If he can just stay healthy he looks like a mid-rotation starter in the making.
12. Aeverson Arteaga, SS
Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 170 | Seasonal age in 2024: 21
Arteaga was my sleeper pick for the Giants last offseason, but he started off 2023 in a funk and tried to hack his way out of it, with some improvements in the second half in average and power but still below-average swing decisions. He underwent surgery at the end of the season to address thoracic outlet syndrome, so it’s possible that the condition explains some of his struggles when he did make contact, although I’m loath to write off the swing choices he was making. He can stick at shortstop, so if he comes back healthy and cuts down on the hackin’, he could still end up a solid-average regular or better.
13. Joe Whitman, LHP
Bats: L | Throws: L | Height: 6-5 | Weight: 200 | Seasonal age in 2024: 22
Whitman was the Giants’ third pick in 2023, coming in the second comp round. The draft came on the heels of Whitman’s breakout spring for Kent State after he’d spent two years at Purdue with an ERA over 10. Whitman is up to 96 mph with a plus slider and an average changeup, enough of a package to stay as a starter with a clear advantage against left-handed batters. He doesn’t have a great delivery and may never see average command. That said, he throws enough strikes to be a fourth starter with this arsenal, even if nothing really improves or changes over time.
14. Maui Ahuna, SS
Bats: L | Throws: R | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 170 | Seasonal age in 2024: 22
Ahuna transferred from Kansas to Tennessee for the 2023 season, got caught up in some ridiculous NCAA investigation about the transfer, and never really got going at the plate after he was cleared to play. He struck out 31.2 percent of the time as a junior, his highest rate of any of his three years in college, and the rest of his production dropped accordingly. He didn’t play after signing to try to get him completely healthy after some nagging injuries during the spring. He has shown plus defense at short in the past, does have some pop in the bat, and could benefit from the Giants helping him clean up his swing to quiet it down so he doesn’t have so much extra movement. There’s everyday upside here if you believe 2023 was an aberration.
Keaton Winn made his major-league debut in 2023 and is competing for a roster spot this spring. (Nick Turchiaro / USA Today)
15. Keaton Winn, RHP
Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-4 | Weight: 238 | Seasonal age in 2024: 26
Winn is 96-98 mph with a nasty splitter, though his four-seamer is very flat and he hasn’t been able to spin the slider effectively since he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2021. He does have a 55 sinker and could be the unusual sinker/splitter guy, throwing plenty of strikes with both pitches, but it’s a very stiff delivery and even with the splitter he has real trouble keeping lefties in the park. He’s about 90 percent likely to end up a reliever but could be a very high-end one working with two pluses in the sinker and splitter.
16. Vaun Brown, OF
Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-0 | Weight: 215 | Seasonal age in 2024: 26
Brown played just 59 games last year around various injuries, something that might just be part of who he is given how ripped and tightly wound his body is and how hard he plays. It’s 80 speed when he’s healthy with plus power, but as a hitter he’s overly aggressive and his path is inconsistent. He’s often over his front side and then slashes at the ball, so he hits for less in-game power than he shows in BP. He struck out 37.5 percent of the time last year in Double A with just a 6.3 percent walk rate, which isn’t going to play anywhere. He has to tone down the aggressiveness to be a fourth outfielder/platoon bat.
17. Onil Perez, C
Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 187 | Seasonal age in 2024: 21
Perez is a true catcher with a plus arm, improving enough on receiving and framing to project to stay back there, while he shows good zone control and contact skills as a hitter without much in-game power yet. He made his full-season debut in 2023, hitting .300/.364/.403 in 62 games in Low A with just an 11 percent strikeout rate, finishing with 13 games in High A where he continued to make contact with one extra-base hit. It’s more of an all-fields approach now and he doesn’t look for pitches to drive yet, although that could come later. He’s most likely a backup but if the in-game power starts to increase he could end up an everyday catcher.
18. Landen Roupp, RHP
Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 205 | Seasonal age in 2024: 25
Roupp dominated Double A in 2023 when he wasn’t on the injured list for a back issue. He made 10 starts and struck out 42 against nine walks in 31 innings with a 1.74 ERA. He’s a sinker/curveball guy, although he has a slider and change, with the curveball a true out pitch and the sinker around 92-93 mph. The curveball generated whiffs about half the time batters swung at it last year, with real two-plane break, a little more horizontal because of Roupp’s low three-quarters arm slot. The changeup is his worst pitch and lefties rocked him last year for a .319/.407/.426 line (tiny sample, 54 PA). Between that and the back issues he’s probably a reliever, capable of some bulk work against a team that leans right-handed.
19. Eric Silva, RHP
Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 185 | Seasonal age in 2024: 21
Silva gets high marks from R&D folks for his pitch shapes, but hitters have been less impressed so far and he didn’t make any strides in 2023. He moved up to High A but had the same stuff and level of command, so against better hitters he missed fewer bats, walked more guys, and gave up some more hard contact. He averaged 93 mph on the fastball, touching 97, with a 45 slider and a potentially average changeup with some long tailing action, but he barely used the change last year, instead mixing in a curve and what looked like a cutter as his pitch mix became too broad. His velocity dipped during the middle of the season; when they sent him back to the complex in Arizona he was more 91-93. He’ll pitch this year at 21 and could go to Double A, with plenty of time to pick up some velocity and/or improve his command to still end up a league-average starter, although right now it’s more likely he’s a fifth starter or bulk reliever.
20. Wade Meckler, OF
Bats: L | Throws: R | Height: 5-10 | Weight: 178 | Seasonal age in 2024: 24
Meckler’s a great story, going from a senior sign in the eighth round in 2022 to the majors just 13 months after he was drafted. He can run and he can hit a fastball, but he doesn’t pick up secondary stuff well and it’s 30 or 35 power. He does look like a quality extra guy who can play all over the outfield.
GO DEEPER
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Others of note
• Infielder Diego Velasquez hit .298/.387/.434 as a 19-year-old in Low A last year, putting the ball in the air more than he did on the ground for the first time, and can play second base well enough to be a regular but not short, splitting time between the two spots last year. It’s a bet on a hit tool, and he does have strong contact skills and what looks like a solid approach for his age.
• Jairo Pomares missed all of 2023 beyond nine rehab games in the ACL, dealing with lower back and quad injuries. He’s a power-over-hit corner outfielder whose defense has actually regressed and who’s becoming less selective at the plate.
• Right-hander Gerelmi Maldonado flashed some power stuff without much control as a starter in Low A, then blew out his elbow and underwent Tommy John surgery in the fall.
• Erik Miller has been up to 100 mph and misses bats with both a slider and changeup, but the former Phillies lefty, picked up in a trade for Yunior Marte a year ago, has had trouble staying healthy and throwing strikes, with a 17.4 percent walk rate in Triple A last year as a 25-year-old.
• Right-hander Carson Seymour has been up to 97 mph, sitting 93-95, with a plus slider and fringy command. He did have a solid year as a starter in Double A and could end up at the back of a rotation, although I think his high slot and trouble repeating the delivery will push him into relief.
• Seymour came over with lefty Nick Zwack in the 2022 trade that sent Darin Ruf to the Mets. Zwack needs to go to the bullpen, stat, as his 93-94 mph fastball plays down and hitters get on it. He has an average slider as a starter and might see both pitches tick up in relief.
• Right-hander Randy Rodriguez sits 96-98 mph with a 55 slider but walked a man an inning in Triple A last year and over the course of the whole season walked 20 percent of the left-handed batters he faced. If he ever throws strikes, he’s got multiple weapons to miss bats, although it’s straight one-inning relief at that.
• Right-hander Manuel Mercedes sits in the mid-90s with huge sink, generating groundball rates over 60 percent every year in pro ball, but doesn’t miss bats and has no real weapon for lefties. That kind of sink will get him a lot of chances, and he’s only 21 this year.
2024 impact
Harrison should be in the rotation from the get-go. Winn will be on the staff somewhere, and if they don’t add another starter he might get a rotation spot, although I noted my concerns above. Luciano is a big question — his bat wasn’t ready for the majors and he is not a shortstop, yet right now he appears to be the favorite for that job, which would not be good news for Giants fans.
The fallen
The Giants’ 2021 first-round pick was right-hander Will Bednar, a starter for the national champion Mississippi State Bulldogs, but he has struggled with control and injuries since he signed. He made only four appearances during the regular season last year, then made six more in the AFL where he walked nine in 5 1/3 innings and had a 13.50 ERA. He was shut down after that with the same back injury that ruined his season.
Their big international signee from 2022, Bahamian shortstop Ryan Reckley, was “unplayable” and went “way backwards” in the words of a couple of scouts who saw him. He hit .164/.335/.261 in the ACL at age 18, striking out 37.6 percent of the time. 2019 first-rounder Hunter Bishop missed the year after left elbow surgery, so now he’ll be 26, has yet to play in Double A, and when last we saw him he struck out a third of the time as a 24-year-old in High A.
Sleeper
Scouts who’ve seen Arias rave, and in limited time he did everything you could have asked him to do. He might move quickly this year and leap into the top 50.
GO DEEPER
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(Top photo of Kyle Harrison: Bill Streicher / USA Today)
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