Steve Buchanan gives his best bets for the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks Thursday Night Football game.
It’s the 49ers and Seahawks on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 6. The Niners are looking to get back up to .500 while the Seahawks hope to remain atop the NFC West. I’ll give you some of my favorite bets you can tail on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday night.
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The Seahawks have hit the over in four of the five games they’ve played this season by an average of 4.7 points. I’m thinking they’ll be 4-2 to the over when this game on Thursday night concludes. One of my main concerns is the Seahawks offensive line. They just allowed Geno Smith to be sacked seven times last week, giving him the second-most in the league overall with 18. Smith has been under a lot of pressure on 39% of his drop backs, which is the fifth-highest total in the league. It’s lead to just a 54% completion rate (64% adjusted), 5.5 YPA and four interceptions. This Niners defensive line should be a nightmare for Smith.
The kicking situation for the Niners is also an issue. Last week, Jake Moody was injured while trying to make a tackle. He was diagnosed with a high ankle sprain, which will sideline him for weeks. The Niners signed Matthew Wright to take over as of Wednesday, so he hasn’t had much time to get game ready. He’s been around the league since 2019, so it’s not as if this is his first rodeo. However, being thrust into game action, in Seattle no less, is no easy task. Wright has some range, as he’s 11/14 in his career from 40-49 yards and 6/9 on 50+. He hasn’t made an attempt at either since 2022, however.
I think these factors will help surpress the total in this game, paving the way for the under to hit.
As I write this Wednesday afternoon, the juice is heavy on Walker’s receiving prop of 2.5 catches. At -175 to the over, we’re certainly expecting some catches out of the backfield for Walker. It makes sense, as we just went over the nightmare scenario for Smith being his flimsy offensive line. Smith has targeted his running backs heavily, as both Walker and Charbonnet have a combined 36 targets on the season. The Seahawks are the only team with two running backs in the top 20 for targets. Walker is tied for 15th in the league with 16 targets BUT has played two less games than everyone ranked in the top 20.
With a solid pass rush, it’s no surprise to see a heavy amount of volume going to opposing running backs. The 49ers have seen 27 targets go to them and they’ve made 23 catches for 211 yards. That’s been an average of 9.1 yards per reception. With the Seahawks passing as heavily as they have been at a league leading rate of 67%, we should see plenty of that as +3.5 underdogs. I feel very confident that Walker goes over this total.
Boy, do I love this spot for Jordan Mason. The Seahawks just allowed Tyrone Tracy of the Giants to go for 129 yards on 18 attempts last week. The Giants fifth-round pick averaged 3.6 yards after contact and went for over 10 yards four times in Week 5. Now, we get Mason, who hasn’t gone under 4.1 yards per carry in a game this season, face the same defense.
The 49ers have fully entrusted Mason to be the lead back in this offense and have handed him the ball 105 times through five games. He only did so 14 times last week against the Cardinals but a second-half comeback really put the brakes on the Niners run game. Aside from last week, Mason hadn’t seen less than 19 carries in a game. Mason’s current line as I write this is set at 81.5. This has been a number he’s blown past in four of his five games. He’s reached 100 rushing yards three times and against tougher opponents. In this game, I’m going for more at plus money. You could even take this a step further and go for 100 rushing yards, which is currently at +170.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
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