NFL Week 7 delivers the highly-anticipated Super Bowl rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers. While the stakes aren’t nearly as high as the last Chiefs vs 49ers matchup, this still promises to be one of the best games on Sunday.
Unfortunately, this bout between perennial Super Bowl contenders loses some of its luster because of injuries. Kansas City is without Rashee Rice, Isiah Pacheco and edge rusher Charles Omenihu. Meanwhile, San Francisco will be taking the field without Christian McCaffrey, Dre Greenlaw, Javon Hargrave and Talanoa Hufanga. Needless to say, neither team is at full strength.
Related: Week 7 fantasy rankings
Let’s dive into the stats you need to know and matchups to watch for this Chiefs vs 49ers game.
86.6 – Brock Purdy’s QB rating when blitzed (18th in NFL)
Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images
While 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy isn’t posting MVP-caliber numbers this season, he’s still playing at a very high level. Entering NFL games today, he is responsible for the second-most passing yards (1,629) and yards per attempt (8.8) and boasts the fourth-best ESPN QBR (70.3) among quarterbacks with 95-plus completions. However, there is one area where Purdy has struggled this season and that’s been against the blitz.
Brock Purdy splitsQB RatingTD% – INT%Completion %Turnover-Worthy Play Ratevs Blitz86.6 (16th)4.6% – 4.6%63.1 (14th)3.8% (20th)Not Blitzed108.1 (4th)5% – 0.8%66.7% (17th)0.7% (2nd)Brock Purdy stats via Pro Football Focus
Related: NFL defense rankings
That’s especially relevant against this Chiefs defense, which has the second-highest blitz rate (34.2 percent) in the NFL. When Purdy faced the Minnesota Vikings in Week 2 – highest blitz rate in the NFL – Brian Florez blitzed Purdy on 51.1 percent of his dropbacks (PFF). On 23 dropbacks against the blitz, Purdy completed 70.6 percent of his 17 attempts but had a 0-1 TD-INT line while averaging just 6.7 yards per attempt. He also had a 64.3 QB rating and 8.7 percent Turnover-Worthy Play rate against the blitz.
We will also note, however, that Purdy performed well against the blitz in the Chiefs vs 49ers Super Bowl matchup. Kansas City sent the blitz on 46.3 percent of his dropbacks, with Purdy posting a 106.5 QB rating with zero Turnover-Worthy plays, 1 touchdown and a 66.7 percent completion rate.
Related: Best NFL dynasties ever, including the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs
3.0 – Yards per Carry allowed by the Kansas City Chiefs defense in last four games
Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images
Even without Christian McCaffrey all season, the 49ers have one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL. San Francisco enters Week 7 averaging the third-most rushing yards per game (158.0) with the seventh-highest yards per carry average (5.0) and the eighth-highest rate of run plays (48.7 percent). Jordan Mason’s status is unknown for Week 7, but even if he plays, this could be a difficult matchup for Kyle Shanahan’s running backs.
Rush YPGYPC AllowedRush TDsRush Success RateWeeks 2-564.33.0128.6%Kansas City Chiefs run defense statistics via Pro Football Reference and RBSDM.com
Related: NFL power rankings, see where Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers land
During this four-game stretch by the Chiefs’ run defense, they have faced Bijan Robinson, Alvin Kamara and a top-10 Chargers rushing offense. It’s also worth noting that in Week 1, Kansas City held Derrick Henry to 46 rushing yards and a 3.5 yards per carry average, with Lamar Jackson (122 yards) doing most of the damage.
72.7 – QB rating allowed by Fred Warner when targeted in coverage (3rd)
Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images
Plenty will be made ahead of Sunday’s Chiefs vs 49ers matchup about Travis Kelce breaking out of his slump. From Weeks 1-3, he averaged just 23 receiving yards per game on 12 combined targets. With Rice out, Kelce has seemingly returned to his old self, averaging 79.5 receiving yards per game with 16 receptions on 19 targets in his last two games. Unfortunately for Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, the 49ers have All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner to deploy in coverage.
Fred Warner coverage stats (PFF): 72.7 QB rating allowed (3rd in NFL), 4.5 average Depth of Target (20th), 8.2 yards per reception (11th), 92.4 PFF coverage grade (1st), 0 penalties, 2 interceptions (1st)
Related: Week 7 fantasy TE rankings, evaluating the 15 best fantasy tight ends this week
Now, many will point to the success Kelce had in the Super Bowl (9 receptions for 93 receiving yards) as evidence that he’s matchup-proof. However, it also needs to be acknowledged that Kelce plays at a different level in winner-take-all postseason games. Week 7 is not that for this Chiefs team. Plus, unlike in that Super Bowl, San Francisco doesn’t have to also account for Rice or Pacheco. With how short-handed this Chiefs offense is, it will become easier for Warner and the 49ers to contain 35-year-old Kelce..
77.34 – QB rating allowed this season by Chiefs’ CB Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson
Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images
L’Jarius Sneed who? Losing the top cornerback seemed like a massive loss for this Chiefs pass defense heading into the season. Instead, Sneed has been one of the worst defensive backs in the NFL with the Tennessee Titans and Kansas City’s new cornerback tandem is thriving. In five games this year, the Chiefs have allowed the eighth-lowest completion rate (62.5 percent) with the 12th-lowest yards per attempt allowed (6.7). A majority of the credit goes to cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, who both look great on the outside (McDuffie plays 58.9 percent of snaps outside).
QB RatingTDs AllowedReception RateTrent McDuffie82.00 (21 targets faced)66.7%Jaylen Watson73.70 (27 targets faced)51.9%Kansas City Chiefs statistics via PFF
Also Read: Comparing Patrick Mahomes’ playoff resume to all-time greats
It makes for a very interesting matchup against the 49ers receiver corps. Deebo Samuel looks like an All-Pro offensive weapon again and in teaming up with Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings, San Francisco has the best receiving corps in the NFL. While the Chiefs might have an advantage at cornerback, San Francisco can attack in another way.
Kansas City Chiefs defense vs TEs (2024: 48 targets allowed (most), 9.6 targets per game (most), 37 receptions (T-most), 7.4 receptions per game (most), 409 receiving yards (31st), 81.8 receiving yards per game allowed (most)
In short, George Kittle should lead the 49ers’ pass-catchers in targets on Sunday. It’s the biggest weakness on this Chiefs defense and considering how productive Kittle has been this season, this is a golden opportunity for his best game of the season.
Copyright for syndicated content belongs to the linked Source link
