Two of the NFL’s marquee teams will square off in a Super Bowl rematch when the San Francisco 49ers host the Kansas City Chiefs in a highly anticipated regular-season affair in Santa Clara, California.
This will be the teams’ fourth meeting in the past six seasons – they have also played in two of the past five Super Bowls – and the Chiefs have won each of the previous matchups. Kansas City rallied to knock off San Francisco in overtime, 25-22, to win its second straight Super Bowl in February.
The Niners have scuffled to a 3-3 start but could be 5-1 if not for two blown fourth quarter leads against the Rams and Cardinals. San Francisco has been overwhelmed by injuries, especially on offense where it has had to play without reigning Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey. Offensive weapons Deebo Samuel and George Kittle have also missed games.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs keep rolling along at 5-0 in spite of their own rash of injured players. The Chiefs are coming off their bye but will still be without Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice, each of whom is on injured reserve, and have been patching together their offense around two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes.
Still, this should be a whale of a game between each conference’s favorite to advance to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans – KC is +200 to win the AFC; SF is +300 to win NFC.
Here’s how we intend wagering on it at our favorite NFL betting sites.
Game Details
Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers
Date: Sunday, Oct. 20, 2024 (Week 7)
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Location: Levi’s Stadium (Santa Clara, California)
Watch: FOX
Odds Summary
Moneyline: Chiefs -102, 49ers -116
Spread: Chiefs +1.5 (-115), 49ers -1.5 (-105)
Total: Over/Under 47.5 (-110/-110)
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook and subject to change.
Chiefs vs. 49ers Moneyline
The two-time defending champion Chiefs harken memories of the great 49ers teams of the 1980s and early 1990s. Each team has an efficient offense and world-class quarterback that overshadows an extremely underrated defense.
Mahomes is a well-deserved favorite to win his third MVP – and is tracking to win his third consecutive Super Bowl MVP and the fourth of his career. But the Chiefs are 5-0 because of Chris Jones, Chamarri Conner and their dominant defense, which is ranked ninth in the NFL (305.4 yards-against per game), fifth against the run (88.4 YPG) and sixth in points-against per game (17.0).
Yet, here comes Brock Purdy and the efficient 49ers offense, which is as healthy as it has been all season. The Niners got the metaphorical mini-bye, with a 10-day break after their dominant, 36-24 win over the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday night that pushed them back into first place in the NFC West.
San Francisco is one of the NFL’s most balanced offensive teams. They have run 188 rushing plays and 185 passes this season – a misleading number due to Purdy’s 12 rushing attempts, each of which started as a pass play.
But Purdy has yet to beat Mahomes, and Niners coach Kyle Shanahan has yet to beat Andy Reid. Plus, pressure has bothered Purdy, and Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo can dial up the heat as well as anyone in football.
But 5-0 Kansas City has been winning games with the Houdini act, since its plus-33 point differential is tied for eighth-best in the NFL – and only one point better than San Francisco’s plus-32 differential. The No. 4 seed Niners are still desperate since they’d likely fall out of the postseason field entirely with a loss.
Look for San Francisco to get off the schneid against the Chiefs and deal them their first loss of 2024.
Chiefs vs. 49ers Spread
Wagering the Chiefs to cover +1.5 does not make much sense, since if they are going to do so they are likely to win outright. If you want to choose a Chiefs spread bet then try an alternate total of +3.5, especially as a same-game or traditional parlay leg.
But if you think the 49ers will win, you should be willing to take them to cover -1.5, especially with the enhanced -105 odds that will pay $0.95 profit-per-dollar bet over the typical $0.91 of a -110 wager.
Chiefs vs. 49ers Over/Under
We’ve detailed the Chiefs’ defensive domination, but the 49ers’ usually stellar unit has been a bit spotty despite their top-10 ranking in yards against and 12th-place ranking in points-against per game (21.7).
But for all of San Francisco’s struggles, the Under is 4-2 in its games, and it is giving up only 18.6 points per game at home.
The Super Bowl last year had just 47 points, and the Chiefs offense is a patchwork group held together by Mahomes. KC is 15th in the NFL in points per game (23.6), and star tight end/podcaster Travis Kelce hasn’t scored a touchdown yet.
This should be proof that lowish-scoring games can still be super-compelling. Take the Under.
Chiefs vs 49ers Props
Brock Purdy Over 254.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Purdy is second in the NFL in passing yards (1,629), an especially impressive fact since we already alluded to San Francisco’s exceptional offensive balance. The Niners are putting up the second-most yards per game (420) behind only the Baltimore Ravens, which just adds to the surprise that they are 3-3.
But the Chiefs defense has been susceptible against the pass, since they are 20th in the NFL in passing-yards against per game (217). Spagnuolo can bring heat against quarterbacks, and Jones leads KC with three sacks, but the Chiefs are tied for 26th in the NFL in sacks (9).
Jordan Mason has had an excellent season running the ball for the Niners, but the Chiefs defense is likely to make him a spectator. With Purdy’s rapport with top receiver Brandon Aiyuk growing, plus Kittle and Samuel being healthy, the Niners quarterback should have a huge game throwing the ball.
Travis Kelce Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The Niners have not faced many receiving tight ends this season but gave up 63 yards to Noah Fant last Thursday in Seattle.
Plus, for all of his struggles in the red zone, Kelce is still Kansas City’s active receiving leader – Rice has the most yards but is out for the season with a knee injury. Kelce may only be putting up 45.6 yards per game but has topped 70 receiving yards in two straight.
Plus, if KC falls behind, as we expect it to, Mahomes will be more inclined to put it up. Kelce had 93 receiving yards in the Super Bowl, and we’re not sure how San Francisco intends to keep him in check Sunday either.
Chiefs vs. 49ers Best Bets Summary
Moneyline: 49ers (-116). The 49ers have not beaten the Chiefs when it counts, but KC is decimated enough, and San Francisco is desperate enough, to change that this week.
Spread: 49ers -1.5 (-105). If you wager a favorite to win, be sure to take it to cover -1.5 too, since nearly every game is decided by two-plus points.
Over/Under: Under 47.5 (-110). The Super Bowl went to overtime, and both teams scored in the extra session, and it still only had 47 points. These defenses are great, and both offenses are down key members, which should mean a solid Under.
Brock Purdy Over 254.5 Passing Yards (-114). The Chiefs’ defense has been strong against the run but vulnerable against passing offenses, and Purdy is second in the NFL in passing yards.
Travis Kelce Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-114). Kelce has topped this number in three of his past four head-to-heads against the Niners and has gone over 70 receiving yards in each of his past two games. He might even find the end zone Sunday too.
Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
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