The stakes will be higher for the San Francisco 49ers when they host the Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch of last February’s Super Bowl this Sunday.
The Niners have dropped three of their last five games and are dealing with a host of injuries that have decimated their skill positions.
Kyle Shanahan’s team improved their record to 3-3 with a commanding 36-24 victory over the Seattle Seahawks last Sunday while the Chiefs were resting on their bye week.
Kansas City are one of only two remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL, having comfortably seen off the New Orleans Saints 26-13 at Arrowhead Stadium to post a 5-0 record.
But Andy Reid’s men have also been bitten by the injury bug with wide receivers Hollywood Brown and Rashee Rice both expected to miss the rest of the season as leading rusher Isiah Pacheco recovers from a fractured fibula on injured reserve.
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NFL betting tips: San Francisco 49ers v Kansas City Chiefs betting tips
Kansas City Chiefs – Money Line @ 1/1Total Points – Under 47.5 @ 20/23
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Chiefs have history on their side
The Chiefs coped admirably without Brown, Rice and Pacheco against the Saints, putting up 460 yards of offence and dominating the time of possession at a ratio of two to one.
And while Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce remain healthy they will always have a chance.
Mahomes has haunted the 49ers in two Super Bowls, winning the game’s MVP award both times.
And until Shanahan can find a defensive scheme that works against the Texan triggerman, the Chiefs should be favoured in these matchups.
However, they are the marginal underdogs for this trip to Levi’s Stadium – although Super Bowl winners are historically 6-3 in rematches the following season.
Further evidence that the Chiefs are worth backing on the Money Line comes from the facts that Mahomes excels when an underdog and Reid’s teams are almost unstoppable following bye weeks.
Mahomes has won 10 of 13 games when the Chiefs have not been favoured, covering the spread in 11, and averages the most passing yards per game (301.7) of any QB as an underdog since 1970 (with a minimum 10 starts).
Reid is 21-4 coming off his bye week, which is also the best mark by a coach since 1970.
Rival defences could keep the scoring down
San Francisco’s injury problems appear to be worsening with backup RB Jordan Mason and leading wide receiver Juan Jennings missing practice this week.
Star rusher Christian McCaffrey has not played a snap all season and Deebo Samuel has been limited in practice as he battles a wrist injury.
If Mason cannot suit up against the Chiefs then fourth-round draft pick Isaac Guerendo will be the next man up in the backfield while fellow rookie Ricky Pearsall, who was the victim of a shooting during an armed robbery attempt the week before the regular season began, is ready to make his first NFL appearance as wide receiver.
The Niners’ defence presents them with their best chance of winning this game as they currently rank seventh in the league against the run and just outside the top 10 in opposition yards per game.
However, the Chiefs’ defence is every bit as good — if not better. Steve Spagnuolo’s unit is currently ranked fourth in the league in yards per rush allowed and in the top half of the league in yards per pass attempt allowed.
Taking the points total to go under 47.5, which it did when they last met in February, looks a solid play amid the two teams’ current injury situations.
All odds correct at time of writing
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