It’s difficult to draw conclusions from 49ers games right now. They aren’t as bad as they look in losses or as good in wins. This team is a box of chocolates, you’re not sure what you’re going to get from week to week. Which is the hallmark of a team hovering around .500.
1. What should the 49ers do at the deadline?
The latest rumor has the Niners asking Denver about receiver Courtland Sutton to replace Brandon Aiyuk. Given that the Broncos are a playoff team at the moment they’ll likely be looking to buy not sell. DeAndre Hopkins in Tennessee is frequently suggested as a Niner trade target by media.
Kyle Shanahan expects Jauan Jennings back for Dallas and has two capable rookies. Is a move essential? No. Will Shanahan make it a priority in trade anyway? Possibly, and that’s the danger of having the head coach and offensive coordinator as defacto GM.
What the Niners should do at the deadline is get a linebacker. San Francisco is starting De’Vondre Campbell and Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles when neither should be getting a high number of snaps. Deal for Ernest Jones in Tennessee, reliable, producing, and the Titans are going nowhere.
Depth at edge would also be helpful, Azeez Ojulari of the Giants is rumored to be on the block, but he’ll be a popular target.
Another rumor has the Niners looking at cornerbacks. They’ve been linked in the past to Cleveland’s Greg Newsome, a former 1st round pick. But he’s entering his fifth-year option next year and is looking to get paid.
I’d go get at least one starting linebacker as the highest priority. I’d be shocked if Shanahan considers it. I expect small moves or signings for a running back, receiver, and defensive lineman, nothing splashy.
Fans are saying the Niners need to be realistic and sell deadline, but Shanahan has to be convinced of that. The trade deadline is November 5th, election day.
2. What do the Niners need to do to recover?
Lean into their young talent and live with the consequences. Give Ricky Pearsall and Jacob Cowing a full opportunity at receiver with Aiyuk out. Name Malik Mustapha a starter for the rest of the year and Renardo Green as the 3rd DB. Play Kalia Davis, Evan Anderson, Sam Okuayinonu, and Robert Beal Jr. on the d line. Start the youth movement.
Use the trade deadline to fill the most gaping holes, that’s at linebacker not receiver. Be an actual GM, address the team needs not just the concerns of the offensive coordinator. Which takes us to…
3. Should Kyle Shanahan be traded/fired at the end of the season or kept on?
He should be traded. Eight years and a championship is getting further out of reach. It’s time, particularly with the potential availability of Detroit Offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson.
Mention Johnson or letting go of Shanahan and the Shanahan zealots arrive in force, pulling out their magic wands and shouting “Expecto Tomsula!” as their battle cry. But this isn’t Harry Potter, it’s Brock Purdy and the Deathly Picks. Purdy has his mistakes on loop, until that changes the Niners aren’t winning in the post-season. May not even make it.
My fondest 49er wish for years is the removal of Shanahan as defacto GM. Only way to do that is to let him go as coach. Doubling down on vets, not knowing what he already has, using the offensive line as a cap savings center, overdrafting weapons and underdrafting offensive linemen, refusing to take accountability or change.
A subtle example of how Shanahan as GM can hurt the team. The Niners struggle against press-man coverage because Shanahan the GM doesn’t draft man beaters at receiver, he drafts for his scheme. So the team is helpless against man, and loses to teams with great secondaries such as Cleveland and Kansas City.
Shanahan is the gift that can get you to the Super Bowl and the curse that prevents a ring as coach, offensive coordinator, and GM. That’s not changing because he isn’t changing.
Will they move on from Shanahan? I seriously doubt it.
4. What’s the Niner outlook for the playoffs?
The realistic path is to win the division. Their record is probably 10-7 at best, including several NFC losses, causing them to lose the wild card tiebreakers. So it’s NFC West champs or bust. The #3 or #4 seed depending on what goes down in the NFC South.
That makes the upcoming Tampa Bay game off the bye a key matchup, provided Tampa wins their division. A head-to-head win may take the Niners to the #3 seed if they can win the West. Also, the Seattle game at Easy Bake is crucial. A Seahawks win and the teams split 1-1 and Seattle is more likely to have a better record.
Which all adds up to this, the Niners need to go on a three-game winning streak. Any loss in the next three and they are looking at the #4 seed at best. Lose to Seattle and they may be in danger of missing the playoffs entirely. The margin for error keeps shrinking with each loss.
The Niners should beat Dallas, that’s the first step in their road back.
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