For a second consecutive Sunday, the short-handed San Francisco 49ers are slated to play a team coming off a bye week. This season, we’ve had only eight teams play after their bye week. They’re 5-3 but 3-5 against the spread. Two of the three straight-up losses were the Dolphins and Titans, and the other was Minnesota, who played well against the Lions.
Coaching is key for bye weeks. If you have an Andy Reid, you’ll come out looking how the Chiefs did against the Niners on Sunday.
The Dallas Cowboys, though, have a head coach without a strong connection with his players and an owner placing blame on play design/said coaching. Oh, and we can’t forget Cowboys’ legend Troy Aikman calling out the lack of effort/poor route running from the receiving corps. That’s just what’s happened so far this week.
The good news for Dallas is they may return five defensive starters on Sunday night, including cornerback Daron Bland and edge rusher Micah Parsons.
The good news for San Francisco is that they can take both defensive superstars out of the game by just controlling the ball on the ground. They’ve shown they can fill in at running back and still win. The bad news is they’ve lost Brandon Aiyuk to a torn ACL, Juan Jennings isn’t expected to play, Deebo Samuel was still getting fluid out of his lungs a couple of days ago, and they’re on their third kicker.
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Dallas Cowboys (+4.5) at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5)
The betting odds opened at (-6.5) for the Niners, but those injuries loom large. I don’t expect the line to move a lot in either direction from where it is now before kickoff.
Moneyline
Cowboys: +180
49ers: -220
You know, that (+180) on the Cowboys is enticing. I wouldn’t even bother with the point spread. If I trusted Mike McCarthy to keep his team disciplined and working at their full capacity through the bye week, I would be all over the Cowboys’ moneyline in this spot.
Point Total: 46.5
Wow, so this one opened up at 50.5. The market has significantly corrected itself, responding to 92% of the money coming in on the under. Here we are now, though, sitting below the key number of 47.
I do think the Cowboys’ defense has the opportunity to play their best game of the season. From there, the offense is slightly above average, on par with the defense of the Niners.
Cowboys at 49ers Betting Analysis
Do we really see the 49ers drop to 3-5? It wasn’t long ago pundits were selling their Super Bowl odds of 6-1 pretty hard. This team just seems to get injured too much. Christian McCaffrey trains too hard, Deebo Samuel plays hard, and Aiyuk is now a waste of time and money.
Bland may ruin my plan. I want to bet a player prop on a certain San Francisco rookie wide receiver, though, one who has a miraculous and heroic story that needs to be told several times more.
Ricky Pearsall is a rookie but with a strong 24-year-old body. It’s not just his body that’s mature for a rookie, though. We can’t even imagine how much he must’ve grown in the months following his shooting in downtown San Francisco in a robbery attempt gone wrong.
Pearsall was on the field for 48 snaps last week. We can expect even more playing time on Sunday night.
Cowboys at 49ers Betting Prediction
Right now, you can get Pearsall to go over his yardage total of 17 for just (-110). His anytime touchdown is tempting at (+155), and you know the network wants to nail that heartwarming moment.
Unless the Niners trade for a wide receiver this week, he will be targeted more frequently. From there, 17 yards will hopefully come before halftime.
The Pearsall party was pooped by Patrick Mahomes last week, but this guy was a first-round draft pick. He’s no practice team guy. The team was planning on using him sooner or later anyway. Pearsall may not save the season or even the day for the Niners. I like him to get 18 or more receiving yards, though.
Pick: Pearsall Over 17 Receiving Yards
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