Losing to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 7 is one the San Francisco 49ers will want to forget.
Especially, for Brock Purdy. He was the worst player for the 49ers in that game. It was arguably the worst performance of his career. The Chiefs were able to expose his weaknesses and have now left a blueprint on how to defend against him.
However, not every defense will be as elite as the Chiefs. They forced Purdy to play horrifically in that game, but he didn’t do himself any favors either. I expect that to change in Week 8 when the 49ers host the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. Purdy is primed to bounce back against the Cowboys. He should be able to collect himself for this game as opposed to the Chiefs.
Most importantly, he can take advantage of a weakness in the Cowboys’ defense which is a strength of Purdy’s. That strength is his fondness for throwing to intermediate routes. Purdy has thrown to the intermediate (10-to-19 air yards) at the highest rate in the NFL this season and the highest rate in his career (32.9 percent), per Next Gen Stats.
Purdy has completed 42 of his 71 passes to the intermediate (59.2 percent) for a league-high 757 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions. The Cowboys have allowed the most yards per attempt (12.8) and the most EPA per dropback (+0.83) to intermediate targets this season.
Call me crazy, but I’m pretty sure that is an area the 49ers will attack. Purdy has been doing it all season, so it will surely be emphasized in greater detail this week against a defense that is susceptible to it. That wasn’t the case at all last week. Purdy completed just 3-of-11 intermediate attempts (27.3 percent) for 52 yards and an interception against the Chiefs
It resulted in his lowest completion rate and fewest EPA (-8.4) on such attempts in a game in his career. This is why Purdy is primed to bounce back. He isn’t facing the Chiefs. The Cowboys do not boast a threatening defense. It isn’t anything more than an average defense. Going from the Chiefs’ defense to the Cowboys’ defense will feel so much lighter to Purdy and the 49ers.
That tough matchup will only make them look better against this light one against the Cowboys. The one downside is that the Cowboys are coming off a Bye Week, so they are rested and extra prepared. That might stifle the 49ers for a stretch, but not the entire game. They’ve had the Cowboys’ number for the last three years and that isn’t going to change this week.
Week 8 is a perfect bounce back for the 49ers and Purdy as they head into their Bye Week.
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