California remains a pivotal player on the national stage, even as the state’s political leanings have been pretty clear for the last few decades. The Golden State, which sends ballots to every registered voter, continues to follow a pattern that’s not likely to shift much in 2024. In 2020, Joe Biden won California by nearly 30%, and with the state’s tendency to lean Democratic, it’s safe to say that the outcome here won’t be much of a surprise this time around.
But just because the overall outcome is almost a given doesn’t mean every county in California is cut from the same political cloth. With the state’s massive population and diversity, each region tells its own story when it comes to voting patterns. Whether you’re keeping an eye on the big cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco, or looking at the more rural and conservative regions, California’s vote is always a bit of a mosaic.
California’s election process is different from many other states. Ballots are mailed to all registered voters, and if voters decide to send their ballots back by mail, they need to be postmarked by November 5 and received by November 12. Those deadlines are crucial in ensuring every vote gets counted. While mail-in voting is common in California, the state’s robust in-person voting system still plays a major role in determining results.
The Statewide Picture
California’s voting history over the past few decades has been heavily tilted in favor of Democrats. Since 1992, no Republican presidential candidate has come close to carrying the state, and in 2020, Joe Biden’s near 30% margin over Donald Trump only solidified that trend. In 2024, it’s expected that Harris will dominate California’s electoral votes, which are critical in the overall national tally. The state sends a whopping 54 electors to the Electoral College, the most of any state.
Though the outcome in California is largely predetermined in presidential elections, it’s the local races and the vote-by-county breakdown that really tell the story. The state’s urban areas, particularly in and around Los Angeles, San Francisco, and other major cities, generally lean strongly Democratic. However, once you move out into the rural regions of the state, things get more complicated. Counties in the Central Valley and parts of the Inland Empire, for example, tend to show more conservative support, and they can have a significant impact on overall turnout and trends.
County Breakdown and Electoral Map
To better understand the vote-by-county breakdown, it’s helpful to look at how California’s counties typically vote. Some counties are practically locked in as blue, while others see more red.
With 40.4% of precincts reporting, the state is leaning toward Kamala Harris. Here is the current total of votes counted.
CANDIDATEVOTESPERCENTAGEKamala Harris4,660,71960.2Donald Trump2,892,97037.4Robert F. Kennedy Jr.79,1131.0Jill Stein55,4060.7Chase Oliver28,3230.4Claudia De la Cruz23,0120.3
Here’s how the counties shake out:
AlamedaAlpineAmadorButteCalaverasColusaContra CostaDel NorteEl DoradoFresnoGlennHumboldtImperialInyoKernKingsLakeLassenLos AngelesMaderaMarinMariposaMendocinoMercedModocMonoMontereyNapaNevadaOrangePlacerPlumasRiversideSacramentoSan BenitoSan BernardinoSan DiegoSan FranciscoSan JoaquinSan Luis ObispoSan MateoSanta BarbaraSanta ClaraSanta CruzShastaSierraSiskiyouSolanoSonomaStanislausSutterTehamaTrinityTulareTuolumneVenturaYoloYuba
*With the count an evolving thing, we will regularly update this as information becomes available.
Key Counties: Los Angeles and San Francisco
Los Angeles County is, without a doubt, the most populous in California and one of the largest in the United States. With its vast array of voters, it’s a bellwether for the Democratic vote in the state. In 2020, nearly 70% of voters in LA County cast ballots for Biden, and that trend is expected to continue in 2024. Los Angeles is home to a diverse population with a wide range of ethnicities, making it a critical region in the overall statewide results. With strong support from the city and its surrounding suburbs, Harris will likely perform well here.
San Francisco County, located in the heart of the Bay Area, has an even more solidly Democratic voting record. Known for its progressive values, the city is a stronghold for liberal politics, and Harris’ performance here is expected to be just as dominant in 2024. Voters in San Francisco tend to lean far left, so any Republican hopes in this area are almost non-existent.
Rural vs. Urban Divide
While urban areas like LA and San Francisco show overwhelming Democratic support, rural counties throughout California tell a different story. Places like Kern County, Tulare County, and Shasta County are known for their more conservative leanings. These counties consistently vote for Republican candidates, and though their overall population numbers are smaller, they’re still crucial for understanding California’s full electoral picture. In 2020, these areas went solidly for Trump, and though it’s hard to predict the exact outcome for 2024, it’s unlikely to see any major shifts in these regions.
For now, it seems all but certain that California will remain in the Democratic column, but how much influence the red counties will have in shaping the final outcome will be interesting to watch. Whether or not these areas can chip away at the Democratic stronghold in 2024 remains to be seen, but one thing’s for sure: California’s electoral map is as complicated as it is crucial to the future of national politics.
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