No.
Get it out of the way. No. Juan Soto is not coming to the San Francisco Giants.
But if there’s a fan base and franchise that could fall in love with a brash, left-handed power hitter who takes walk after walk, it’s this one. It would be like riding a bike. The Neifi Chicken was frozen in carbonite and is hanging behind Larry Baer’s desk. It can be thawed. Giants fans are primed for a new generation of walk-related antics.
Patient power-hitting outfielders have had success with the Giants before. (Jed Jacobsohn / Getty Images)
No, Soto isn’t coming to the Giants. But if there’s an organization that needs a star, it’s this one. Not just to placate the fans who are used to coming in second for big names. It’s happened five times in recent years, with Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The biggest name they’ve signed since Barry Bonds was Carlos Correa*, and that lasted less than a week. It’s time, and not just from a PR standpoint. It’s necessary from a baseball standpoint, too.
* Correa made the All-Star team in 2024, and he finished with a 3.7 WAR and .905 OPS. He also played in 86 games. Even though he would fit the Giants’ biggest need, I still have no idea what to think about that whole ordeal.
No, Soto isn’t coming to the Giants. Linus Van Pelt woke up on Nov. 1 with dirt in his hair and a spider in his ear, after the Great Pumpkin didn’t visit him for the 65th straight year. Learn from him.
However, it’s the offseason. Not only do you have the license to dream, but you have the license to be stupid. Just dumb as heck. No one’s going to stop you. Besides, every article about Soto’s future home is going to mention the Giants. They can see all the reasons listed up there, even if they don’t have the justifiable cynicism.
So let’s get stupid.
Why the Giants would want Juan Soto
To feel something again, dammit. To feel something.
If Soto has another three seasons like his first seven, he’ll make the Hall of Fame, which is impressive enough. But he’s also the same age as Casey Schmitt and Tyler Fitzgerald. This isn’t an investment for the next couple of years; this is the Giants’ chance to get the rarest type of free agent, a Cooperstown-bound player in his mid-20s. Soto won’t be the same age Matt Chapman is now for another seven years, which is notable because the Giants felt comfortable extending Chapman long-term. You have a cool decade before you should expect Soto to be anything less than incredible.
Just in the short term, though, consider this un-fun fact: When it comes to players with more than 300 PA and an adjusted OPS better than the league average, the Giants were fifth in baseball with seven of them. The Yankees were tied for 13th place with five. One of these two teams won a pennant, and the other one disappointed and frustrated their fans for the fourth consecutive season.
The difference is obvious, and while there won’t be a chance for the Giants to pair Soto with another Hall of Famer just yet, it’s clear that this offense is missing some main ingredients. The Giants could get runners on the white squares. They couldn’t get the runners to step on the white pentagon. It reminds me vaguely of the Seinfeld bit with the rental car reservation. Anybody can get runners on the white squares. Really, though, the most important part is having them step on the white pentagon.
Still not convinced that Soto is the answer? Maybe you don’t like the cut of his jib, or you’re against any contract longer than 10 years. Maybe you’re worried that he would be one basket with all the Giants’ eggs in it. If you’re worried that Soto is overrated, though, we can go to the historical comparisons.
A list of players with an on-base percentage over .400 with more than 4,000 plate appearances before turning 25:
1. Ty Cobb
2. Mel Ott
3. Mickey Mantle
4. Mike Trout
5. Juan Soto
Soto hasn’t struck out in a season more than he’s walked since he turned 21, and as he’s filled out, he’s become a premier power hitter. Seems like a nifty combo.
If you’re not impressed by OBP alone, here are the players with the 10 highest offensive WAR totals from a player before his age-26 season:
1. Ty Cobb
2. Mike Trout
3. Mickey Mantle
4. Alex Rodríguez
5. Jimmie Foxx
6. Rogers Hornsby
7. Mel Ott
8. Arky Vaughan
9. Eddie Mathews
10. Juan Soto
It’s an incredible list. Those are some of the greatest baseball players and crossword clues ever. Soto is just above roustabouts like Hank Aaron, Ken Griffey Jr. and Albert Pujols.
Maybe you’re partial to the most seasons with at least 5 WAR before turning 26. Here are the only players who did it six times, which is once more than Soto:
1. Mike Trout
2. Mickey Mantle
3. Mel Ott
4. Ty Cobb
Soto is tied with 11 other players with five, and every one of them is in the Hall of Fame, with the exception of Pujols, who will get in on the first ballot, and Rodríguez who isn’t in because of some sort of clerical error, I think.
It’s the same names, over and over again. It’s the inner circle of the Hall of Fame. That’s the path Soto is on. So if you’re worried about how he stares down pitchers after taking a pitch, or how the ballpark treats left-handed hitters, or what the payroll will be when it’s time to extend the contract of LaMonte Wade III, keep in mind how rare he is.
Why the Giants wouldn’t want Juan Soto
The finger thing means the luxury tax. Even if they Giants aren’t worried as much about that, they’re certainly unwilling to commit the guaranteed money Soto is going to get, which will probably set a non-Ohtani record. Tim Britton projects 13 years and $611 million, which is $47 million a year for a long, long time. Even if the Giants have a payroll of $200 million, that would mean they’re trying to find 25 players with the same money that the Rockies and White Sox spent on payroll last year. It would be a daunting task.
And for all the impressive names in the last section, some cautionary tales barely missed the cut, like Grady Sizemore, Jason Heyward, Jim Fregosi, Andruw Jones and César Cedeño. While all had good to great careers, and you can still make a Hall of Fame case for Jones, you wouldn’t want to be paying $47 million for the numbers they put up in their late 20s and early 30s. Not all young superstars become veteran superstars, and this would be a really unfortunate way for the Giants to remember that.
There’s also the minor issue of Soto actually wanting to play in San Francisco. The ballpark thing is often overblown, but it’s more important than a tiebreaker, too. If Soto sees himself as a true 40-homer hitter with the potential to chase down milestones, if not records, Oracle Park wouldn’t be the place for him. You shouldn’t be as worried about how he’d produce, because he’d still be better than almost anyone else who plays there, even if his raw numbers would be slightly down. The adjusted numbers would remind us that he really was one of the best. Guys with a Hall of Fame case to make really don’t care about adjusted numbers, and I don’t blame them. He’d lose a lot of homers here.
Soto’s defense is also an issue. While he has the arm for right, his range is below average, at best. This makes sense when you realize that he’s one of the slower non-catchers his age in the game. It’s the kind of profile you’d expect from a 31-year-old Giants outfielder, but he’s a little ahead of his time. He’s bound for first base or DH, which will limit his overall value, as well as his future team’s roster flexibility. Soto seems like the kind of player who can hit a homer into McCovey Cove when he’s 50, but will he be a well-rounded baseball player when he’s 30?
If you’re paying him $47 million per season, you’d better hope so. You wouldn’t want him to be a defensive and baserunning liability. Even if he keeps hitting as well as he’s been hitting, that would make him some sort of … I don’t know, some sort of … Ted Williams-type player.
OK, that’s still pretty good. But the main argument has merit. This isn’t a five-tool player you can expect to keep getting better and better. You can list as many Hall of Famers as you want; there are a lot of baseball gremlins between here and Cooperstown. Some of them are rabid. Some of them are just mean. You’re not wrong to be skeptical.
Verdict
Yes.
The answer is still no. But the idea? A definite yes. The Padres couldn’t get half-decent crowds unless the Dodgers or Giants were in town, and then they started spending a lot of money on really good players. Now they have a crowd that impresses national announcers during the postseason.
Soto isn’t Manny Machado, though. He’s better. Signing a 26-year-old superstar until he’s 40? It’s a risk, but it’s just so wacky it might work.
Previous free agent profiles
• Blake Snell, LHP
(Top photo: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)
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