The San Francisco 49ers have never gone on to qualify for postseason play after a 5-6 start. I’m looking at a few different percentages for them to make the playoffs, and I can’t find anything north of 15%.
Some will point toward the injuries as to why this team has struggled so much this season. For me, it’s not just that, though. I believe they probably practice too hard, but that was the M.O. for the Legion of Boom, and that Seattle team almost won two Super Bowls.
On top of overpreparing, I question their heart. I understand their injuries seem to always be with their superstars, but what about a team like Tampa?
They fought their butts off while they were banged up at wide receiver, knowing that’s their strength, and the defense struggled early against good teams. I remember betting them to win the NFC South at 18-1 after Atlanta secured the tiebreaker, but those odds have dwindled, and the team is still alive.
Sure, the Niners could still win their division and even make a run in the playoffs, but I don’t see them rallying around each other when things aren’t going well. They seem like a metaphorically fair-weather team to me.
We still don’t know if Brock Purdy or Trent Williams will play, and that’s unfortunate, but it may not matter. The Buffalo Bills had their biggest win of the season over the Chiefs heading into their bye week. Maybe they celebrated an extra night, but that’s good. They’ve fought through a shaky start to the season where they struggled to find their identity on offense. I’m not sure if the Niners are fighting so hard together.
Bills’ QB Josh Allen is the current favorite for MVP. Expectations aren’t something I like to make a habit. However, it’s hard not to expect the best from Allen and the Bills this week. Beating the Chiefs the way they did helped them check off that confidence box, and they did it on their 12th straight week of football.
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San Francisco 49ers (+7) at Buffalo Bills (-7)
The lookahead betting line for this game was just (-3.5) for the Bills. There weren’t many of us who expected Purdy to sit out last week. And from the looks of the line, the 49ers quarterback may miss yet another week.
Reports coming out of San Francisco, however, point toward his return. It is his shoulder, and that’s pretty high on the list for QBs. Even if he does play, do we really expect he’s 100%? I would say 70% at best, which is my guess.
If you like the Bills here, wait in hopes that Purdy is confirmed, and then you’ll likely get betting odds under a touchdown.
Moneyline Odds
49ers: +255
Bills: -315
If Buffalo wasn’t coming off of a bye week, the odds wouldn’t be as good, but I would love the spot for San Francisco regardless. The Bills would be coming off of that big win potentially in a letdown spot against a desperate team.
We still have the desperation spot for the Niners, no matter what. You’re getting a touchdown right now with the spread, though, so maybe pass on these moneylines.
Point Total: 44
This point total says Purdy isn’t playing. I understand the weather is on the way this weekend. We might get a couple of inches here in Virginia. I can’t imagine how cold it must feel up there in Buffalo.
Looking at the forecast, they’re expecting snow the entire weekend. However, the winds and snow are expected to simmer down by kickoff. That’s just what we know on Wednesday morning, though. Heck, the Browns and Steelers scored more points in one quarter playing in the snow than they did in the three previous quarters combined without it.
If Purdy doesn’t play, a bet on the over could be a disaster, but if he’s out there, and Adam Schefter says he should be, I love the play.
49ers at Bills Betting Analysis
It’s no secret San Francisco is incredibly banged up. Their offense isn’t the same without Purdy. There was no dressing anything up. It was simple and the Packers ate them up.
Okay, if I’m Kyle Shanahan before kickoff and I’m looking down the barrel with all these injuries and then having to travel to play a fresh Bills team a week later, I take one step back so that it’s feasible I can take one and hopefully more further. The reason his team looked like one of the worst in the league last week is because they weren’t that into it from the start.
This is the week, though, and the Niners actually match up quite well with Buffalo. With Christian McCaffrey back, look for Shanahan to lean on him against the Bills’ 30th-ranked rush defense. That statistic surprised me as well. They’ve gotten away with it by having the lead and holding a top-10 rush play percentage on defense.
Statistically, this 49er offense is still a juggernaut. They rank 5th in yards/rush, 4th in yards/pass, and 2nd in yards/play. This is with McCaffrey out for most of the season, Deebo Samuel has been banged up, and Brandon Aiyuk barely played for a couple of weeks. Purdy’s looking like more than a facilitator now. Heck, if he wills a victory here, we might be talking about him for MVP. It’s not that crazy when you look at it that way.
49ers at Bills Betting Pick
Here’s your clue that the Niners took that step back in order to take several forward. They didn’t just sit one or two or three Pro Bowlers at the four most important positions on the field-LT, DE, CB, and QB. They know the team has a great matchup this week.
I like the over, but it’s too early to call with the weather. Give me the Niners. This is the ultimate buy-low spot.
Pick: 49ers (+7)
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