Gonzaga begins West Coast Conference Tournament play as a hefty favorite on Monday night when it faces San Francisco at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.
The No. 2 seed Bulldogs (23-8 SU, 13-18 ATS) take on the No. 3 Dons (24-8 SU, 16-14-1 ATS) for a berth in Tuesday’s championship game. Gonzaga won both regular-season meetings by 20 and 11 points and covered the point spread in both games, which were played within the past month.
San Francisco was without starting point guard Marcus Williams in its quarterfinal win over Washington State. The team held him out while investigating a potential NCAA rules violation. It is unclear whether he will play against Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are 14.5-point favorites, and the over/under is 153.5 points. Here are our San Francisco vs Gonzaga predictions and best bets.
San Francisco vs. Gonzaga predictions and best bets
Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
Gonzaga doesn’t necessarily need a break tonight, but it likely will get one with San Francisco holding out Williams. An all-WCC First Team selection, Williams is second on the team with 15.1 points per game, first in assists (4.3 per game) and first in 3-point shooting (41.4%).
Williams had 28 points and five assists in the regular season finale — a game Gonzaga won 95-75. He had nine points, eight assists and five rebounds in an 88-77 loss to Gonzaga on Feb. 13.
In other words, if San Francisco couldn’t keep it close with Williams, how will it keep it close without Williams? Williams’ absence will ease the way for Gonzaga point guard Ryan Nembhard, who averages an impressive 10 assists per game and had 29 assists in two games against San Francisco.
The Dons also have had no answer for Gonzaga post player and leading scorer Graham Ike. Ike has 33 points and 19 rebounds in 53 minutes over two games.
Two trends back Gonzaga and the Over.
In the last 11 seasons of the WCC Tournament, favorites are 21-12 against the spread (63.6%). In the past 37 instances during the WCC Tournament, totals of 147 points or higher are 24-12-1 to the Over (66.7%). That includes five games with a 4-1 record to the Over this year. The only loss was by half a point.
Second round: Pepperdine vs. Portland — 86-73 final score (Over 157)Third round: Pepperdine vs. Oregon State — 77-73 final score (Over 150)Third round: Loyola Marymount vs.Washington State — 94-77 final score (Over 148.5)Quarterfinals: Pepperdine vs. Santa Clara — 78-76 final score (Under 154.5)Quarterfinals: Washington State vs. San Francisco — 86-75 final score (Over 153.5)
San Francisco vs. Gonzaga moneyline odds analysis
Why Gonzaga could win as the favorite
Best odds: -1200 at bet365 Sportsbook
Gonzaga has been the dominant team in the WCC over the last 30 years, and there is no sign of that stopping this season. The Bulldogs have been to the WCC Tournament championship game 27-straight seasons, including all 25 under coach Mark Few.
The Bulldogs pose a matchup nightmare for most WCC teams, including San Francisco. It would be a major surprise if they lost tonight.
Why San Francisco could win as the underdog
Best odds: +810 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Gonzaga lit up San Francisco from 3-point range in the second meeting and won by 20 points. The Zags shot 4 for 14 (28.6%) from deep in the first meeting and won by 11.
The first meeting was more like it for San Francisco, which ranks fourth in the nation in 3-point shooting defense at 28.5%. If the Dons can repeat that level of defense, it can prevent Gonzaga from pulling away. If that happens and San Francisco can score at a high level, the Dons could be in the game.
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